Media Tenor - The Economy: Market Uncertainty as Voters Decide

New York, October 10, 2008: As the global financial markets continue to experience turmoil, and early voting has started in some U.S. states, the candidates have completed their second debate. But while the media reaction showed Obama as the clear winner, the debate may not have helped either candidate.

“Obama received no negative ratings on the debate itself,” says Roland Schatz, President of Media Tenor International. “Despite this, his media image as well as McCain’s went down following the debate. Increased attacks from the McCain campaign and both candidates being rated negatively on economic issues contributed to this slide.”

The debate, however, might not have much impact on the race. “Everyone is talking about the economy,” Schatz notes. “Because of the high volume of negative financial news, the debate hasn’t lingered in the media, making it less important than it might have been in other circumstances.”

However, Schatz observed that when compared head to head on the economy, Obama has extended his advantage over McCain on economic issues. “Obama is rated less negatively than McCain, and right now that’s giving him a growing advantage. The question is whether he can hold on to it, as it’s more against McCain than it is for Obama.”

Meanwhile, according to Media Tenor’s data, polls and predictions are also recognizing the Obama advantage.

“Obama has increased his lead in the polls both on a nationwide basis and a state-by-state basis. Many predictions of the electoral college results are very favorable for him, especially as some critical swing states have moved towards the Democratic ticket, so coverage of polling and election predictions have shown a sharp positive jump for Obama, which may help perpetuate that momentum.”

Obama has stronger debate performance

While it didn’t help his overall rating, Obama received only positive and neutral statements for his debate performance, which McCain was criticized for being condescending and argumentative in his responses to some of the questions.

Evaluation of the performance in the second debate

Basis: a total of 28 / 12 statements in ABC, CBS and NBC and Fox news programs, 10/8 - 10/9/2008

“Slant-O-Meter”: Who’s rated better?

Obama’s edge on the economy grew as the news focused on global markets. McCain remains ahead on some issues that have received less coverage recently, but Obama has surged in polls and predictions as some swing states move towards the Democrats.

ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 9/29 - 10/09/2008

Basis: a total of 1,427 statements by or on Obama and McCain in ABC, CBS and NBC and Fox news programs, 9/29 - 10/09/2008

Negative coverage of the economy increases

Despite the passage of the bail-out bill, the economic crisis is continuing to spread, affecting international markets and causing a fiscal crisis in Iceland. As the economy continues to dominate the news, it has become the prime issue in the campaign.

ABC, NBC and CBS coverage about the economy, 8/1/2007 – 10/9/2008

Basis: a total of 25,615 stories on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 8/1/2007 – 10/9/2008

To read the full Media Tenor election report in PDF format click here.

For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, but also for International politics as well,” Schatz explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.

For further information visit: MediaTenor.com

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