Media Tenor - The Democratic National Convention: Will it make a difference for Obama?

New York, August 27, 2008: As their convention opens in Denver, the Democrats are looking at a presidential race that continues to tighten, making party unification and Obama’s leadership image a top priority for the event, with the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate a crucial key to the puzzle.

“Obama has been criticized on his experience so it makes sense for him to choose a veteran politician like Biden to be his VP,” says Roland Schatz, President of Media Tenor International. “The early media reception to Biden has been positive, but we don’t yet know if this will reassure voters as foreign policy seems to be less a concern for the voters than economic expertise.”

According to Media Tenor’s data, Obama has regained his advantage in coverage tone in television network news, which suggests that Obama will soon retake the lead he lost earlier this week in the polls.

“We expect this sort of shift in response to the conventions,” notes Schatz. “It is typical for each candidate to get a bump in the poll numbers after his convention. The real test is whether candidates can hold the gains made during this time. Certainly, McCain, who is somewhat out of the spotlight right now, should also see a spike in positives during and after the Republican convention.”

For Obama it still remains to be seen how successful the convention will be for him. “Right now the focus at the convention has been on other members of the party. Edward Kennedy got a hugely positive reception for his speech and the media have largely been focused on both Biden’s selection and Hilary Clinton’s endorsement of Obama.” Schatz says.

“When Obama takes the stage in Denver on Thursday night he’ll need to convince the American people that he’s ready to lead and has the skills to address both economic concerns and international policy issues. A message of change isn’t going to be enough in times of economic threat,” Schatz adds. “In those times people tend to be change-resistant”.

Another crucial aspect is the poll-driven reporting during the heat of elections. “Obama is not in a clear lead, much like Kerry in 2004,” Schatz says, comparing the current Obama polling with Kerry’s. “But he needs to get that clear lead to generate a winning image that will make a difference compared to the results for Kerry in 2004 or Gore in 2000.”

Biden viewed favorably in U.S. media

The news is good for Obama’s VP choice Biden, with him receiving far more positive commentary than negative. However, a past plagiarism controversy and his previous criticism of Obama may come back to haunt the campaign.

Time, Newsweek, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 1/1 - 8/26/2008

Basis: all statements by or on Joe Biden in Time, Newsweek, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 1/1 - 8/26/2008

Obama struggles as convention opens

Obama is still facing significant negatives on his top topics outside of his party’s nomination. He’ll need to use the Democratic convention to take control of his image and turn these numbers around.

Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 8/18 - 8/26/2008

Basis: all statements by or on Obama in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 8/18 - 8/26/2008

McCain comes under attack at convention

McCain faces a significant share of negative statements that will likely increase as Democratic convention speakers go on the attack. Meanwhile, continued coverage of his personal wealth hurt him in light of current economic turmoil.

Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 8/18 - 8/26/2008

Basis: all statements by or on McCain in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 8/18 - 8/26/2008

To read the full Media Tenor election report in PDF format click here.

For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, but also for International politics as well,” Schatz explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.

For further information visit: MediaTenor.com

Popularity: 1% [?]

The media has given so much coverage to Obama over the summer that the convention is just overexposure. I think voters are sick to death of hearing him say hope and change and knowing that it means nothing. The poll taken after the first day of the convention showed he lost 2 points so he better hurry and tell people specifics of hope and change or he is toast.