Media Channel

South Africa’s Precarious International Media Profile

Pretoria, South Africa: International media coverage of xenophobic attacks in South Africa plunged the country’s approval rating to the worst levels since January 2007, according to new research by Media Tenor. The same is true for President Thabo Mbeki’s public image and the economy, albeit for different reasons. Despite Mr Zuma’s recent attempts to woo foreign business and political confidence in his newly won presidency of the ANC, most international media remain cautious. South African business is still viewed with some optimism, but it faces an uphill battle to regain the enthusiasm expressed in 2007.

Analysing 96 opinion-leading media in 15 countries for the period January 2007 to May 2008, Media Tenor South Africa attempted to establish the extent of the damage to South Africa’s reputation on the world stage, in light of the recent xenophobic attacks, widespread condemnation of the President’s role as mediator in the Zimbabwean election crisis, and within the broader world economic downturn. 3,515 reports in a variety of media types were analysed(1). The research examined general impressions of the country, political entities, as well as business and economic news.

Monthly coverage on all areas of South Africa

The exceptionally high negativity(2), coupled with the heightened coverage South Africa received in the last two months, has created a particularly challenging reputation quandary for any country to resolve:

** Basis: 3,515 reports in 96 world opinion-leading media

The above graph shows that overall perceptions of South Africa in foreign media are changeable over the months, perhaps due to international media’s reliance on current news that is sensational in nature. South Africa is especially vulnerable to crime news and criticism of its regional foreign policies, but it also attracts fairly high interest in business and tourism news.

The highest points of approval the country achieved appeared in months where financial news in the Financial Times (UK) dominated. In February 2007, Trevol Manuel’s budget speech was well received, and a lengthy profile of him as the longest serving finance minister consequently rubbed off on South Africa’s coverage. In September, talks of separating Vodacom from Telkom immediately had Vodafone expressing an interest in acquiring a larger stake in the company, which has the largest subscriber base in South Africa.

On the other hand, the most disapproval South Africa attracted could be seen when the country, especially its president, was mentioned in connection with the events unfolding in Zimbabwe. In March 2007, when Morgan Tsvangirai was assaulted by police, world media heavily criticized President Mbeki for his quiet diplomacy strategy. The same intensive criticism appeared when the March 2008 general elections in Zimbabwe were plunged into chaos in early April, and Mbeki’s response to the situation was widely reported as a damp squib. This criticism gained further momentum when it was reported that he resisted attempts to put Zimbabwe on the agenda at the United Nations Security Council while presiding as its chairman.

The close relationship between perceptions of the President and his country is emphasised in the following graph:

** Basis: 3,515 reports in 96 world opinion-leading media

The only time when South Africa’s reputation did not plummet because of events in Zimbabwe was when the January power outages were reported to have a widespread impact on the country, its businesses, and even the world economy. May 2008 coverage, which revolved heavily around the xenophobic violence in South Africa, was quickly linked by commentators to the crisis in Zimbabwe and President Mbeki’s inability to find a quick and lasting solution to a problem that is destabilizing the region. Incidentally, the news on South Africa in May might have been more negative, possibly by as much as -20%, had it not been for the enthusiasm expressed in Indian media for the merger talks between MTN and rivals Bharti and Reliance.

The relatively insulated spikes of foreign policy criticism are particularly damaging to the country’s reputation when they overlay the continuous negative crime news attached to the country. Coverage of sensational topics such as crime, court cases, and policing typically make up 14% of South Africa’s international coverage. But in some months, like May 2008, when xenophobic violence dominated the news, these topics made up nearly a quarter of all coverage on the country. Needless to say, such news is rarely positive, which means the most consistently prominent topic attached to the country is almost exclusively negative in nature.

Looking only at coverage where South Africa as a society is mentioned, the continuous negative impact of crime news becomes clearer:

** Basis: 9,523 statements specifically on South Africa as a nation, 96 world media

What is especially worrying about the nation’s international media profile is the increase over time of more negative reports. This could mean that negative perceptions are becoming entrenched and may therefore, in turn, be more difficult to reverse. Such coverage can also have a particularly averse effect on long-term developmental goals such as attracting foreign investment, and luring higher numbers of tourists (especially African tourists) to meet industry growth targets. Relations with important trading partners might also be affected in the long term.

A qualitative scan of June and July coverage shows that recent negative coverage of a back-up plan for the Fifa World Cup could be related to the consistent pressure on South Africa’s reputation. Crime and South Africa’s foreign policy in Zimbabwe have been the two most consistent and most negative factors linked to the country, and it therefore comes as no surprise that European media have linked these concerns with Fifa’s decision to look at contingency plans, in case South Africa fails in its guarantees(3).

Coverage of the May xenophobic attacks

45% of world news on South Africa in May 2008 was related to the attacks on foreign nationals in the country. This news included articles that spoke expressly about the plight of refugees in South Africa, the country’s immigration policies, and the violence directed at foreign nationals. Put another way, 39% of all coverage this month was exclusively negative and directly related to these incidents.

**Basis: 473 reports in 96 monitored media, May 2008

In the first week of the criminal activity, foreign media resorted to simply tracking the issue and its most immediate causes, but as the violence progressed, they sought to find deeper reasons for its ‘sudden appearance’ (Nigerian & UK media were already highlighting in 2007 the treatment of foreign nationals in South Africa). While US media showed a preference for underlining the socio-economic conditions in South Africa that might have led to attacks against these groups, UK and German media were quick to link the violence to poor leadership, specifically directing much of their criticism at national government and President Mbeki.

Looking only at the opinionated reports and dividing these into African and non-African territories a sharp discrepancy in May’s international media coverage emerges:

**Basis: 473 reports in 96 monitored media, May 2008

Though African media account for only 15% of monitored coverage on South Africa, it is still surprising that relatively few articles should appear in these, regarding the violence which affected many of their nationals.

Mmegi (Botswana), This Day (Nigeria), and Noticias Mozambique strongly condemned the attacks over a number of articles, while other media only ran incidental reports (less than two articles). The same could be said for coverage on South Africa’s relationship with Zimbabwe – it has gone largely under-reported in African media despite the turmoil the issue has brought to the African Union and the SADC. Here too, Mmegi, Noticias Mozambique and Canal de Mozambique have been the most vocal. On the other hand, coverage of the World Cup build-up remains higher in neighbouring countries than the rest of the world, most likely because their media see concrete business opportunities to be shared around in the region.

Examining all reports on the World Cup between January and May 2008, the 20 reports in African media have only been positive, while 17 reports in other media have tended towards slight negativity (-5.8%). All of the negative reports on the World Cup originated in German media which raised concerns about South Africa’s preparedness and even more importantly the country’s safety and security credentials. On the other hand, UK and French media ran incidental reports highlighting the timely progression of building projects(4).

The state of South Africa’s business and economic environment

Business and economic news in foreign media follows a similar pattern to political news, in that coverage is heavily dependent on current events. The announcements in September 2007 that Telkom would potentially sell off its stake in Vodacom immediately attracted positive interest on the telecoms industry. The mining accident at Harmony attracted high volumes of coverage the following month, but this led to a sharp decline in ratings – as did coverage of the mining sector in January 2008, when power outages ceased production. In May 2008, talks between MTN and Bharti as well as Reliance comprised 12% of all coverage on the country in that month, most of it positive.

The incidental nature of the news on South African business is not so much underscored by volumes as by the volatile ratings it receives:

**Basis: 999 reports in 96 world opinion-leading media

Only 3% of coverage on South Africa’s business environment tackles the future prospects of business. This makes news not only vulnerable to sharp up or down swings, it also makes it difficult for potential investors to fully understand, from the media they read, South Africa’s true business potential. The following ratings of individual businesses in 2007 and 2008 illustrate the point:

Basis: 6,483 statements in 96 world opinion-leading media

Without radically changing strategies or operations, most of the above businesses nevertheless saw their approval either become more negative or at least more ambiguous, in a radically changed reporting environment. 2008 saw the emphasis of news shift to the economy, production capacity and energy concerns, away from the mergers and acquisitions euphoria of 2007, when the attraction of foreign capital took centre stage. Such volatility in business news may potentially discourage investors who could be relying on media coverage for their initial interest in South Africa.

Despite the damage to the economy inflicted by the January power crisis, as well as the sharp rise in global fuel and commodities prices, and the knock-on effects of the sub-primes losses in the US housing sector, coverage of South African business has remained fairly robust. Economic news is the concern. Coverage has been on the steady increase since before the ANC conference in December, and it has also become more negative, which may not bode well for foreign investment, either from individuals looking to purchase, say, property, or multinationals scouring countries for a favourable business climate. Aside from the MTN deal announced in May, it appears as though bleak economic news is steadily chewing its way into the positive business coverage South Africa has been receiving. Unless a concerted effort is made to highlight the diversity of business in South Africa, their future prospects in bull and bear markets, the potential exists for very serious challenges to emerge on foreign investment confidence in the country.

Conclusion

South Africa faces very complex communication challenges in 2008 which need to be rapidly addressed by as many stakeholders as possible, if any change in the country’s global reputation is to come about. Opinion of the country has slumped to its lowest level since analysis began; so too has that of the economy and president. Western media have grown particularly intolerant of President Mbeki and the country’s foreign policy in relation to Zimbabwe, and they are increasingly linking crime, xenophobia, and the power outages to a crisis of leadership in the government as well as the ANC. However, Western media are not alone in the criticism. Over the past few months, Botswana and Nigerian media have grown similarly critical of the country. Though African and Asian media are considerably more moderate towards South Africa than western media, they are unlikely to affect the opinions of a large number of stakeholders, be they foreign investors, trading nations, tourists or skilled emigrants.

The potential exists, however, for intervention, should national government, business and civil society mount a synchronised communication campaign that systematically tackles much of the negativity that exists in other countries. For example, less than 1% of May’s international coverage focused on civil society’s intervention in the townships, to supply foreign nationals with food, clothing and shelter. Also, leaders may distinguish themselves by giving foreign commentators the information that may bring stability to foreign perceptions. To date, Mr Mbeki’s profile in international media has degenerated into a single-story issue – his relationship with Robert Mugabe. Other activities have been removed from the agenda. And Jacob Zuma has yet to concretely define business and social policy for foreign media in a way that inspires confidence. The current approval he garners in African and UK media is largely linked to his ascendance to the presidency of the ANC, not policy, while his negative image in German media is linked to his behaviour during the May rape trial and the arms deal. Without domestic and foreign policy information, perceptions of the country and its economy are likely to lurch onwards.

(1) Please refer to Appendix 1 for a full list of the media that were analysed
(2) Approval ratings as calculated by Media Tenor are the ratio of positive reports vs. negative reports; hence, a negative rating of -40% means there were 40% more negative reports than positive
(3) Quantitative data on this issue will be made available as soon as the information has been wholly analyzed.
(4) As mentioned before, the country can expect heightened criticism around the World Cup in June coverage.

Media Contact

Wadim Schreiner: MD Media Tenor SA (wn.schreiner@mediatenor.co.za)
Media Tenor South Africa
Tel: (012) 346 6422

Appendix 1: Media Set

Germany
Berliner Zeitung
Die Welt
Die Zeit
Financial Times D
Focus
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Frankfurter Rundschau
Handelsblatt
Handelsblatt
Spiegel
Süddeutsche Zeitung
Tagesallegemeine Zeitung
Touristik Report
Wirtschaftswoche
Woche
WSJ (Europe)

France
International Herald Tribune
La Tribune
Le Figaro
Le Monde
Le Parisien
Les Echos
L’Express
Liberation

Italy
Corriera della Sera
Giornale delle Assicurazioni
Il Giornale
Il sole 24 ore
La Repubblica
La Stampa
Mondo

China
China Daily
China Economic Review
Financial Times Asia
Shanghai Daily
South China Morning Post

United Kingdom
BBC World Service
Daily Mail
Daily Mirror
Daily Telegraph
Financial Times
Guardian
Independent
Independent on Sunday
Observer
Sunday Daily Telegraph
Sunday Times
The Times

India
Business Standard
Financial Express
Hindustan Times
New Indian Express
The Economic Times
The Hindu
The Times of India

Nigeria
Vanguard Nigeria
Business Day Nigeria
ThisDay

Kenya
The East African (Kenya)
Nairobi Star
People Daily
Kenya Times
Daily Nation
The Standard
Business Daily

Netherlands
De Telegraaf
NRC Handelsblad
Trouw
Algemeene Dagblad

USA
Newsweek
Time
New York Times
USA Today
Los Angeles Times
Miami Herald
San Jose Mercury
Atlanta JC
San Francisco Chronicle
Washington Times
Chicago Tribune
Detroit Free Press
Business Week
Wall Street Journal
NBC News
ABC News