Media Tenor: A Race Between Leadership and Popularity

New York, June 20, 2008: Both Obama and McCain were covered negatively this week, as Media Tenor’s analysis shows, but the pressure clearly is on John McCain with his critical ratings reaching a 12-week high.

“The Senator’s plan to secure the nation’s oil reserve was covered intensively, but negatively,” says Head of Political Analysis at Media Tenor International Markus Rettich. “Critical remarks by his opponent were covered as well.”

Media Tenor’s data show a sharp increase of negative coverage from FOX news, which might be an indicator that McCain could lose support among conservatives.

“Published poll results were confusing this week,” noted Rettich as Harris Interactive said on Thursday that Obama’s lead over McCain has widened to double digits. However, Gallup’s tracking poll showed only a thin two-point lead for Obama on Tuesday.

Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch had speculated in last week’s report that Obama might lose his lead in the daily polls after the media trend had shifted slightly towards McCain.

“But today’s data show that Obama made a come back in both media coverage and public opinion,” Rettich says.

Currently U.S. media are presenting a race between leadership and popularity, as Media Tenor’s “Slant-O-Meter” indicates: McCain in ahead on leadership personality and foreign policy while Obama leads in economic policy, predictions and funding.

Currently Obama has a clear advantage in the news weeklies. The tone of coverage was positive in both Newsweek and Time Magazine. But the data also show that there has been no real push for Obama in TV coverage thus far.

Not surprisingly, Barack Obama’s decision to refuse public funding was the top issue this week. But the tone of coverage was mixed with journalists stressing the possible advantages while his opponent’s criticism was also covered.

“The voter’s preference seems to be volatile,” Rettich concludes. “This is a typical situation where agenda setting by the media has an impact.”

Pressure on McCain: criticism reaches 12-week high

Both Senators were covered negatively this week, but the pressure is clearly on McCain as his critical ratings reach a 12-week high. The Senator’s plan to secure the nation’s oil reserve was covered negatively.

Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 3/31 - 6/19/2008: tone of coverage by weeks

Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 3/31 – 6/19/2008

Fox intensified criticism of McCain again

This week the tone of McCain coverage turned more negative – not only in the weeklies, but on Fox News as well. Fox not only quoted Obama’s criticism of McCains platform, the journalists were negative as well.

Candidate coverage, 6/2 – 6/19/2008: tone of McCain coverage on Fox and NBC news

Basis: all statements by or on McCain in Fox and NBC news programs 6/2 – 6/19/2008

Advantage for Obama in the news weeklies

Currently Obama has a clear advantage in the news weeklies. The tone of coverage was positive both in Newsweek and Time Magazine. But data for the last two weeks also show that there is no real push for Obama in TV coverage so far.

Candidate coverage, 6/9 – 6/19/2008: tone of Obama and McCain coverage by media outlets

Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 6/9 – 6/19/2008

To read the full Media Tenor election report in PDF format click here.

For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, but also for International politics as well,” Rettich explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.

For further information visit: MediaTenor.com

Popularity: 1% [?]