Media Tenor: McCain May Face Problems On Iraq Again

New York, May 30, 2008: Barack Obama has a narrow lead in national opinion polls, but public opinion is still volatile, according to Media Tenor’s analysis.

“Day by day analysis indicates that a clear and continuous media trend has helped Obama win support this month,” says Markus Rettich, Head of Political Analysis at Media Tenor International. “As Tom Brokaw put it back in 2000: ‘The networks giveth and the networks taketh away.’ But so far I can see no general trend when it comes to the two candidates.”

Detailed analysis of this week’s and last week’s coverage shows that McCain’s television coverage was almost neutral. Obama provoked more evaluative statements, both positive and negative in tone.

So far the McCain campaign has successfully raised questions concerning Barack Obama’s foreign policy platform. The issue was one of the top five topics for the Illinois Senator this week, and the tone was negative. But it is unclear whether foreign policy will remain a strong point for McCain.

“He may face problems on Iraq again,” says Rettich. Following the March anniversary of the conflict and the Petraeus hearings in early April, the Iraq issue disappeared from the media agenda.

The U.S. situation in Iraq was both rarely mentioned and received coverage that was almost balanced in tone. Negative stories were down and positive stories were up in May.

“Media Tenor data does not cover reality but measures media reality,” explains Rettich, “and the message was: forget about it, it’s okay.” However, Scott McClellan’s allegations have brought the war issue back into the news lately.

The share of statements on McCain’s Iraq platform was 9% for this week, making the issue one of the media’s top 5 topics when it came to his coverage. From Monday to Thursday the tone of this coverage was moderately negative, but seems to pose no major problems – so far. Poll data indicate that public opinion on Iraq forms strictly along party affiliation (see report) with Republicans approving of the current U.S. Policy while Democrats and independent voters don’t. This is a crucial issue for McCain. Since he supported President Bush’s policy, the Iraq issue might help him to attract Republican voters, but also runs the risk of costing him the independents.

As the media clearly focused on Obama and McCain, Clinton received what can be called farewell coverage: friendly treatment but nothing decisive. Compared with both Obama and McCain, Clinton was rated better than each of the two men, but at a low level of awareness.

Both Obama and McCain were rated slightly negative

After McCain had a slightly better media image last week, the tone changed this week: with both Obama and McCain being rated slightly negative this week. Obama received both more negativity as well as more positive ratings.

Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News Iraq coverage, 3/31 - 5/29/2008: tone of coverage by weeks

Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 3/31 – 5/29/2008

Obama’s foreign policy platform questioned

So far the McCain campaign has successfully raised questions concerning Barack Obama’s foreign policy platform. This issue was one of the Illinois Senator’s top five topics this week, and the tone was negative.

Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 5/26 - 5/29/2008: Obama’s top 5 topics

Basis: a total of 586 statements by or on Obama in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 5/12– 5/15/2008

Clinton side-lined in coverage

With Obama clearly regarded as the winner of the Democratic race, media interest in Clinton sharply decreased this week. Also this week, coverage was again clearly focused on Obama; the share of McCain stories fell as well.

Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 3/3 - 5/29/2008: volume of coverage

Basis: a total of 8,354 stories in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 3/3 – 5/29/2008

To read the full Media Tenor election report in PDF format click here.

For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, but also for International politics as well,” Rettich explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.

For further information visit: MediaTenor.com

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