Clinton Gains In Polls As D-Day Dawns For Democrats

Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton square off in four contests today Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. The two campaigns are focused on the big prizes of Texas and Ohio, where the media sees Obama having a chance at knocking out Clinton, or conversely, Clinton having a chance to rally her lagging campaign. For example, McClatchy says the Democratic campaign “hits a turning point Tuesday, when voters in Ohio and Texas either will put Hillary Clinton back into the race after a dismal month or drive her out.” Although some pundits “already have written off Clinton, convincing wins in the two big states would give the New York senator a strong argument to keep campaigning after losing 11 straight contests, and could raise questions for the first time about rival Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s future.” In a story headlined “Texas and Ohio: the end of the campaign trail?” the Los Angeles Times reports, “Many political observers — including Clinton’s husband, the former president — have said she needs strong victories in delegate-rich Texas and Ohio to remain a serious challenger for the Democratic presidential nomination.” But “in a campaign season highlighted by its unpredictability, other political analysts say that if neither Clinton nor Obama scores a pair of solid wins in Texas and Ohio, the battle might continue on to the April 22 Pennsylvania primary — or even beyond.” The New York Daily News reports that if Clinton wins both big contests, she’s “back from the political boneyard. If she loses both, she’s finished. And if it’s a split decision, anything is possible. That’s the consensus of Clinton and Barack Obama campaign officials, party strategists and election experts queried by the Daily News Monday.”

USA Today reports Clinton “spent her last day before key primary contests in Ohio and Texas raising questions about rival Barack Obama’s fitness to lead on national security while the Illinois senator tried to tamp down expectations for a knockout win today.” The New York Times reports Clinton’s campaign “released a sharp television commercial attacking Mr. Obama for being AWOL from his chairmanship of a Senate oversight committee on the forces fighting in Afghanistan - ‘he was too busy running for president to hold even one hearing,’ the ad said - while Mr. Obama’s campaign counterpunched that Mrs. Clinton had herself missed important hearings on Afghanistan before the Senate Armed Services Committee last month.”

Obama Camp Argues Delegate Math Makes Clinton Nomination Unlikely
The CBS Evening News reported, “Despite Clinton victories in states including California, New York, or New Jersey, the Obama campaign refers to what it calls the cold hard reality of the delegate math that makes a Clinton comeback increasingly difficult.”

Four Polls Show Tight Race In Texas
Four polls out in the last 24 hours show an extraordinarily tight race in the Texas Democratic primary. Overall, Clinton holds a narrow lead in three, while Obama has a narrow edge in one. A Zogby International poll of 704 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken March 1-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 47%-44%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken March 2-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 50%-47%. A Belo/WFAA-TV poll of 1200 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken February 29-March 2 shows Clinton leading Obama 46%-45%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 840 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken March 1-2 shows Obama leading Clinton 48%-47%.

Clinton Up Big In Two Of Three Ohio Polls
Clinton holds a double-digit lead over Sen. Barack Obama in Ohio in two of three new polls released in the current news cycle. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters taken March 2-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 56%-42%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 873 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters taken March 1-2 shows Clinton leading Obama 54%-44%. In contrast to the other two, a Zogby International poll of 712 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters taken March 1-3 shows Clinton and Obama tied at 44% apiece.

Clinton Lays Groundwork To Continue Campaign

The media may see this contest ending today if Sen. Hillary Clinton does not score a pair of big wins, but the candidate herself is signaling that the race will go on. ABC World News reported, “Don’t tell Hillary Clinton that this is her last stand. While some of her advisers are making contingency plans, the candidate today said she’s just getting warmed up and feeling really good about her chances tomorrow.” The Hill reports Clinton “began laying the groundwork to battle on past the Texas and Ohio presidential contests Tuesday, even as supporters of her rival for the Democratic nomination said she should end her candidacy if she loses either state.” Clinton was “reported on Monday morning as saying she’s ‘just getting warmed up,’ and campaign officials have repeatedly spoken of Pennsylvania’s primary on April 22 as the next step.” The Washington Post reports in a front page story that Clinton advisers “claimed fresh signs of momentum and continued to attempt to raise doubts about Obama on Monday, questioning his trade policies and ties to a Chicago developer.”

The Wall Street Journal reports on the front page that Clinton “aides have started to imply that even just one big win today would allow her to claim she had broken Sen. Obama’s momentum, justifying a continuing competition.” But if the “outcomes are as close as polls suggest, Sen. Clinton won’t be able to cut into Sen. Obama’s lead in delegates to the Democrats’ August nominating convention. The more likely net result from the four states is that his edge will grow. The Illinois senator currently is ahead with 1,386 delegates to 1,276 for Sen. Clinton, as calculated by the Associated Press.”

Upcoming Primary Calendar Seen As Favorable To Obama
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, “After today, the primary season will be down to contests in 10 states, plus Guam and Puerto Rico. Clinton’s short-term prospects do not appear promising. Democrats caucus in Wyoming on Saturday, but Obama has shown strength in Western caucuses. Mississippi holds its primary a week from today, but Obama also has been hard to beat in the South.”

Poll: Most Say Win In OH Or TX Sufficient For Clinton To Continue
The Washington Post reports a new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows “two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for” Clinton to continue her campaign. But while only “29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states,” that “number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both.” ABC News reports on its website that should Clinton fail to win the Democratic nomination, “many Democrats have a runner-up prize in mind. Asked whom they’d like Obama to pick for vice president, should he win the nomination, 36 percent name Clinton, a broad level of agreement on an open-ended question.”

Popularity: 2% [?]

I am, as usual, disappointed in how malleable Hillary Clinton is showing herself to be! Mark Penn suggests she be more negative–not a problem! Bill suggests she attack Obama on national security–okay, I’ll do it! But,should we not be voting for a person, hopefully a solid-self, well defined person, who will not be doing the bidding of her MALE advisors, but will be listening to her own truth? Let’s face it. Hillary Clinton is a smart, tough, competent woman–who is also hopelessly codependent! That will not work well being President of the United States!

This entire contest has been beset by the most incredible illusions and deceptions; mostly, if not entirely, media generated. Obama’s perceived “momentum,” is based on his “11 straight wins.” This momentum, should have gotten stronger in these Ohio and Texas elections. Media mythmakers have repeated with mind-numbing regularity, that Obama does better, the more time passes. Since all of these “11 straight wins,” have not given Obama less than a 2/3 to Hillary’s 1/3 outcomes, the clear indications are, that the contests in Ohio and Texas should have given Obama, at least, the same results: i.e. 66% (O)/33% C. What happened?

Obama’s perceived “electibility” superiority, is also based on his favoribility edge over Hillary, in the polls . His edge against Hillary, is based on his presumed superior electibility. According to these polls showing that Obama is favored over Clinton, and his favorability in winning over McCain, Obama should be showing devastating superiority in these Texas and Ohio polls. What happened? Could this be, why Hillary has had these preposterous expectations invented against her, in Texas and Ohio?
One week ago, media were saying Hillary was gone, lost, it was over, she had no chance, she should give up; and many people were buying into the hopelessness of her campaign. Now, when Hillary’s poll numbers show the slightest improvment, suddenly, Hillary is required to win by “double digits” to save her hopes. The hypocrisy, the stupidity, the extent of media manipulation is staggering.
I’ve read that news media are “starting their attacks on Obama.” How corrupt of them! But perhaps this unwitting disclosure reveals more than it should have, about this presidential race. In it, this statement, reveals the utter hypocrisy of media in having concealed any honest look at Obama’s record or personal reality, else why say that media are “starting” their attacks, 10 months into the campaign, what have they been doing up till now? Hillary has received nothing but the most blistering and determined attacks against her, since the beginning of the campaign. Yet, people act as if media are simply “neutral” about these candidates. However, it’s not until they sense that media are finally “attacking” Obama, that the recognition of media’s power to influence the polls, comes to the surface.