NEW YORK, January 20, 2004 - Nightly news networks set the stage for Iowa's winner weeks in advance of Monday night's caucus vote. But Howard Dean stumbled and so did the media's efforts to forecast a result before Iowans could vote.

Judging from his large share of evening news coverage in the run-up to the event, Howard Dean was the networks' choice with the rest of the pack trailing in the race for Iowa and for attention from CBS Evening News, ABC World News Tonight and NBC Nightly News.

Exclusive data collected for MediaChannel by international media monitoring group Media Tenor shows that the networks had picked a favorite long in advance of Monday night's voter decision, and their news crews were there to cover every step of his campaign until Dean declared victory over the heartland. But the "surprise" win by John Kerry sent the network news pundits scrambling for an explanation of how they got it wrong.

Setting Dean Up for a Fall

"Media usually create frontrunners only to turn them into a heightened target of criticism," Roland Schatz president of Media Tenor said summarizing the company's data, which was collected by monitoring network news coverage from January 1-15. "Dean received more than five times as much coverage than each of his rivals."

According to MediaChannel/Media Tenor analysis of NBC, ABC and CBS nightly newscasts, the networks devoted nearly 54 percent of their Democratic election coverage to Howard Dean. CBS Evening News tapped the Dean campaign for stories more than its two network rivals with more than 56 percent of CBS News coverage of the Democratic candidates devoted to Dean. The data is based upon the number of statements made by or about the candidates during the networks' national half-hour broadcasts.

Meanwhile, there was a comparative news blackout for the candidate who did win in Iowa, Senator John Kerry, who on Monday night emerged with nearly 38 percent of the caucus vote -- compared to Dean's 18 percent. MediaChannel/Media Tenor analysis shows John Kerry receiving only 11 percent of the network news coverage devoted to Democratic candidates. To their credit, NBC Nightly News devoted more broadcast copy to Kerry than the other networks with nearly 13 percent devoted to the eventual winner. ABC World News, on the other hand devoted only 7 percent of its coverage to the winning democratic candidate.

Turning to Other Sources for Information

If the nightly news is any indicator, Iowa voters chose to listen to, read and watch other sources of news and information before making their decision. And it shows in the candidates' varied media strategies aimed at the estimated 122,000 Iowans who braved sub-freezing temperatures on Monday night to attend caucuses around the state.

A barrage of political ads may have played a part in their decisions. Earlier in the month, the Wisconsin Advertising Project estimated that more than $21 million would be spent by candidates to buy airtime on local TV stations. This breaks down to more than $170 per caucus goer. Still, Kerry ran neck and neck with Dean in the advertisement buying race. According to the most recent data Dean, Gephardt and Kerry each spent well over $500,000 for commercials in Iowa.

Voters are looking elsewhere on television as well. A recent study from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that eight percent of respondents learned most everything they knew about a candidate from shows like "The Daily Show" and "Saturday Night Live." It's no surprise then that Sen. John Edwards announced his candidacy on Jon Stewart's evening comedy broadcast.

The Positive-Negative Network Spin

A decisive factor can be seen in the positive-negative media ratings gathered by MediaChannel/Media Tenor. While Kerry received far less coverage than Dean, in nearly 39 percent of this coverage the candidate was cast in a positive light; only four percent of network news coverage of Kerry had a negative tone to it. Coverage of Dean by percentage was nearly four times more negative: MediaChannel/Media Tenor found that 15.7 percent of the Dean coverage had a negative cast to it.

The Issues, Stupid

The MediaChannel/Media Tenor data reveals that the networks' campaign coverage failed to address the political issues most important to Americans.

"During the first days of January and with the Iowa caucus approaching, the amount of factual information on policy issues in the news has been very low," Schatz said. "Iowa voters relying on network news will thus get only little information on what the candidates actually stand for."

Of its entire candidate reporting, CBS Evening News devoted only 21.4 percent to policy issues, such as the candidates' respective stances on the War on Terror, economy, health care, jobs and education. In a December 2003 poll, American voters told Harris Interactive that these were the five "most important issues for the government to address." ABC and NBC newscasts faired little better than CBS in their obligation to align political coverage with the issues that resonate most with voters. ABC devoted only 33.4 percent of its January 1-15 candidates' coverage to policy issues; NBC only 32 percent.

This does not auger well for the first major primary of the political year. Despite new technologies, journalists on campaign busses and embeds assigned to some candidates, the coverage tends to focus on the horserace.

"In media post mortems year after year, these practices are criticized in some detail," MediaChannel executive editor Danny Schechter said. "But they tend to repeat these mistakes every election year -- it's almost as if political coverage is routinized beyond reform."

The full results of MediaChannel/Media Tenor's ongoing survey of news coverage will be made available beginning February at www.mediachannel.org and its related project site www.mediafordemocracy.us.

Citizens Respond

More and more, people committed to the candidates are charging foul and complaining about network biases of commission and ommission.

In February, MediaChannel.org will launch Media for Democracy 2004, a non-partisan citizens' initiative to monitor mainstream news coverage of the 2004 elections and advocate fairer, more democratic and issue-oriented standards of reporting. The project will include the expertise of more than 100 affiliated media reform groups in the U.S. in a targeted campaign to prevent the types of media mistakes -- such as early, erroneous and politically biased projections -- that plagued the 2000 elections.

"Increasingly, Americans live in a democracy whose agenda is set by the media," Schechter said. "What the networks do -- or fail to do -- may have as much impact on who we vote for and what we know about the interests that drive our political life."

More information on Media For Democracy is available at: http://www.mediachannel.org/views/dissector/mfd.shtml

-- Timothy Karr is Executive Director of MediaChannel and Director of Media For Democracy, MediaChannel's 2004 citizens' initiative to monitor media coverage of the presidential elections.

© MediaChannel.org, 2004. All rights reserved.

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